Visa Raising money from the public?Interesting!
My guess is that the share price will drop after the ipo mainly for 2 reasons,the general trend in the market which is negative and will stay that way at least till the elections as well as the fact that Visa will probably show decrease in profits as the slow down goes on and talks of recession in the air.
My guess is that the share price will drop after the ipo mainly for 2 reasons,the general trend in the market which is negative and will stay that way at least till the elections as well as the fact that Visa will probably show decrease in profits as the slow down goes on and talks of recession in the air.
.Jim Cramer talked about this IPO today on Mad Money. He has a buy rating, I only heard bits & pieces of what he said. He said buy because they are not invovled with mortgage loans and are pay for serves, should do well. The show will be on again tonight (Mon) 11:00pm eastern time on CNBC. Sorry I don't have all what he said, was making dinner!
After I posted the above message, I came across this link. I still like Jim Cramer's Mad Money show, I didn't own Bear Stearn's stock or I may feel diferrent! This is why everyone should do there own DD before investing in the market. But I don't think to many people seen it coming with B Stearn's fall out! Ckeck out this youtube video and Don Harrold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sZCNlPwG8o
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sZCNlPwG8o
Have you ever seen an IPO where Analysts wouldn't rank it at least as "BUY",thats their job to sell,market and make it successful,you can't ignore the market situation now and even good companies stocks drop down as the trend in general is negative,therefore regardless of how well the business is,you would be able to buy this probably in a nice discount if not rushing due to the market situation in general and the negative trend.another thing which i find odd and a point to think about is who is going to try raise money during a bear market and why would they do so now and not later when conditions get better and can get better prices and value for ther shares.
I am aware IPO'S are not being set in a day or two and it takes time before it is ready to roll ,however with market conditions as we have now if they insist on getting out now and not wait for better days ,makes you wonder whats the rush and why insisting on getting the word out with high probability to have that share in discount pretty fast than wait for better market conditions where they can get better premium for their shares.
I'm sorry, but this entire post couldn't be further off base if it were ricky henderson about to steal 2nd. Here are a few points I'd make as to why this stock is going to 75 if not 100 by year end:
1. $3B of the IPO proceeds are being set aside to pay for litigation settlements in the Amex case. If you don't know anything about that, just suffice it to say that Mastercard doesn't have this, and it is a huge liability for them.
2. Visa, on a transaction basis, is larger than all of their competitors combined. That is not a small statement to make. Still, over 55% of their revenue is in the US. There is a ton of room for expansion and revenue growth overseas, where much more of the market is cash based.
3. Visa carved out Europe, which is NOT part of Visa Inc. Europe is the slowest growth region, and will not hamper Visa Inc at all. (This was done because the entire EU may move to an integrated system, and Visa Europe wants to be positioned to win this business, and it can best do this if it is not viewed as an american company)
4. Visa is merely a transaction based company. They don't issue any credit cards, so they have no credit risk (they aren't loaning people money). Mastercard is the same way, Amex is not. Amex is a bank, that is bad.
5. A recession won't necessarily hurt V. A much greater portion of their transactions are coming from consumer staples, and small purchases. People can swipe their card at the grocery store, gas station, and even McDonalds for a fucking 99 cent double cheeseburger. V makes VERY good margins on this because there are flat transaction fees and % of the total purchase fees -- the smaller the buy, the bigger percentage the transaction fee becomes, if you follow that...
6. They rape you on international purchases with the currency exchange. This is a VERY lucrative business, and with more people traveling internationally than ever before, they are making money hand over fist.
7. V will need to be added to all the major etf's and indicies. That is a lot of buying. At the IPO, 25 institutional buyers (pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc) bought over 60% of the shares. That is a shitload of the float that will be bought and held for a long time.
8. There were a ton of banks that participated in the underwriting and sales of this IPO. None of them can issue research reports or ratings on the stock until 40 days after the IPO. Expect Overweights/Buys from all of them.
Anyway, not to be negative to the original poster, and I don't really give a shit if any of you buy V (I do own a few shares), just wanted to share some information with the board.
The big money center banks own most of this company and have owned it even before it became public. The main purpose of this particular IPO was to help the balance sheets of these behemoths. You can bet they will not sell much of this thing for a very long time. As another poster mentioned, most of the float is locked up and this is a long term buy and hold.
IPO Price was $44, which anybody with a respectable account at Schwab or Etrade could have gotten in on. Even if you were Joe Schmoe, you could bought on the open at $59.50. Today we closed at $69.
This is still a good buy, we're going to at least $75 by year end, and more likely $100. Get in now.
This is still a good buy, we're going to at least $75 by year end, and more likely $100. Get in now.
Closed at $75.10 today. This is still a good buy. Earnings come out on Monday, get in before then, because we're going to $80 afterwards. Do you think a company will go IPO and then miss their first earnings? Cmon, you're smarter than that...
This is going to $100 by new years. I'm already up +20%, join the party.
